The race for hotly-contested California Congressional District 47 is heating up with the primary less than three weeks away.
Nine candidates are vying for two spots on the November ballot, including four Republicans, two Democrats and a powerful well-funded independent Eric Troutman.
Incumbent Democrat Dave Min is heavily-favored to advance beyond the June 2, 2026 primary but independent Troutman received incredibly favorable news this week when a townhall audience placed his support at 44%– above any other candidate in the field. (See the moment the poll results are revealed here at the 10:30 mark.)
That an independent might not just advance in the primary but actually beat the sitting Democrat incumbent seemed unthinkable just a few months ago, but Troutman’s high-profile campaign and straightforward, plain speak approach has earned him a huge following of dedicated supporters.
“I’ll admit I was pretty surprised to be leading the race.” Troutman says. “I knew Orange County voters were smart and did their homework but for an independent to potentially win a primary against an incumbent Democrat in a Democrat-leaning district would really be something.”
Troutman believes the issue is the people are done with the false promises of the parties and have wised up.
“There’s no question the political parties have completely failed the people. Biden was President– prices rise. Trump was President– prices rise. Biden was President– the national debt spikes. Trump was president–the national debt spikes.” Troutman says. “The Democrats lied and said Epstein was no big deal. The Republicans lied and said Epstein was no big deal. Both parties protect sexual predators. Both parties waste our money on pet projects. Its terrible and the people are tired of it.”
Still the poll was conducted at a townhall and should not be considered scientific as only those who chose to respond were counted and the townhall audience skewed in Troutman’s direction.
On the Republican side, Michael Maxsenti picked up a major endorsement this week with the California Republican Assembly backing Maxsenti over the other three Republican candidates in the race.
Troutman was pleased to see the endorsement, calling Maxsenti a “good guy with high integrity.”
Still Troutman has called into question Maxsenti’s comparative lack of experience and advanced age– Maxsenti is 75 years old– as reasons Republicans should consider backing the more-powerful Troutman for Congress.
“Maxsenti is a good guy. He is very honest. High integrity individual.” Troutman says. “But he just doesn’t have the juice to protect California and the District against D.C. the way I will. Plus there’s no way a Republican is winning this district after Prop 50. Voting for Maxsenti is just throwing your vote away. Sad but true.”
Meanwhile the limited market options available for forecasting the outcome of the primary continue to back Jenny Rae Le Roux as the most likely candidate to face Dave Min in November.
Le Roux, however, is closely allied with the disastrous Cal DOGE program– which is not affiliated with the California government despite its deceptive name— and her ties to private equity groups may have hurt her as Maxsenti picked up the coveted CRA endorsement.
Bill Brough and Christopher Gonzalez are also running in the race but appear to be trailing badly– although Brough did poll unexpectedly well in late April.
The race remains very close and with Le Roux and Maxsenti expected to split the MAGA vote and Troutman picking up huge portions of centrist voters from both sides of the aisle this is still anyone’s race.
We’ll report again next week.
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